Economist Jeff Thredgold recently shared a few upbeat thoughts about the economy. Consumer confidence regarding near-term and long-term expectations rose sharply in August 2009 to its highest level since December 2007. That’s good news, according to Thredgold, because “consumer spending still represents two-thirds of all US economic activity.”
The other upbeat information concerned home prices. After three solid years of decline, estimated home prices rose 2.9 percent during the second quarter when compared to the first quarter. “The combination of sharp home price declines and historically low mortgage interest rates, when compared to average family incomes, now suggest the highest level of housing affordability in a generation,” Thredgold said.
The bad news, according to Thredgold, is the latest estimate of budget deficits during the next decade. “We can live with budget deficits averaging $150-$300 billion annually…as bad as that is…we have done it for years,” he said. “In my view, we cannot live with deficits averaging $1 trillion EACH year.” I EMPHATICALLY agree with that last statement.
You can visit Thredgold’s Web site at www.thredgold.com and sign up for his free e-mail newsletter called the Tea Leaf. Thredgold puts important economic information in easy-to-understand terms, and makes it relevant and enjoyable to read.
I’m sure that most of you have heard the following quote from the late Dave Thomas, who founded the Wendy’s restaurant chain: “It seems the harder I work, the luckier I get.”
Yet we all know plenty of folks who have worked their heads and hearts off, but for some strange reason just aren’t successful in what they accomplish.
What is the correlation between luck and success? Did Thomas have it right?
John MacKay had the following to say about making his own luck and being successful in business: “I prefer to do everything in my power to make my own ‘luck’ — long hours, clear goals, calculated risks, good hires, expert advice, and a reasonable amount of fear have guided me.” What are you doing to make your “own luck?”
Recently, my company was about to implement a change in a standard business process. Thinking about the implementation of the change, brought to mind a business rule that I learned from my father. Once you see the name, you won’t require further explanation, because you will already be quite familiar with it and understand its implications. It is called the “Law of Unintended Consequences.”
Making a change, any change, has consequences. Your goal should be to be prepared for the consequences you know about and anticipate, and be prepared for the unintended consequences that will most certainly arise. It requires thoughtful focus on the implications of the change, maximizing the results you want, and minimizing the results you don’t want.
Anticipating unintended consequences will change the way people see you. You’ll be surprised at how much more effective you will become as people come to trust and believe in your judgment.
Here’s a good story about a little boy who understood the consequences of his actions.
A young boy enters a barbershop and the barber whispers to his customer, “This is the dumbest kid in the world. Watch this.”
The barber calls the boy over, puts a dollar bill in one hand and two quarters in the other and asks, “Which do you want son?” The boy takes the quarters and leaves the dollar.
“What did I tell you?” said the barber. “That kid never learns!”
When the customer leaves, he sees the same boy coming out of the ice cream store and says, “Hey, son. Why did you take the quarters instead of the dollar bill?”
The boy licked his cone and replied, “Because the day I take the dollar, the game’s over!”
Now that’s a smart kid!
