Thursday, January 15, 2009

No. 1 January 2009


Here is a recent newspaper headline that is bringing smiles to OPE retailers and manufacturers alike: “Generators, Chain Saws Flying Out Of Local Stores’ Inventories.” Add snowthrowers to that list too!

If you were one of many investors who got off the roller coaster (went to cash) sometime during the 2008 stock market roller coaster ride, you’re already “behind the eight ball.” The exact time to sell equities and raise cash was October, 2007. Did you miss that one? I thought so. I would have too. Now your loses-to-date are locked in. And you’re feeling enormous pressure to get the next decision (i.e. when to get back in) exactly right. Good luck.

Ariens Company recently announced that it will offer a complete line of Ariens-branded products in The Home Depot in 2009, including zero-turn mowers, lawn tractors, trimmers, edgers, tillers and log splitters. All products except the tractors and tillers will be manufactured by Ariens. And all but two models of tractors will be available to their independent dealer base. Dan Ariens, president and CEO of Ariens Company, stated that the Gravely brand will remain exclusive to the dealer channel. I think Cub Cadet is not in The Home Depot in 2009, so apparently Ariens is filling the void and expanding their ten year relationship. Which large manufacturers only sell through independent dealers now besides Stihl? Who’s left?

Dennis Desrosiers is a Canadian auto industry analyst who recently shared his conclusions on what is going to happen to the US auto industry in 2009 and what it will really take to fix it. For example, “the legacy costs of health care and pensions are approximately $2,000. per new vehicle – the same input cost as steel.” He goes on to say that “no matter what the industry does to reposition, it can’t get out from underneath the legacy burdens.” And that is why he believes that ultimately it will be hard to avoid bankruptcy – the only way to restructure and legally shift or reduce those legacy burdens. He also believes Chrysler will be broken up and various pieces will go to other car makers. He also believes 50 per cent of auto dealerships will disappear. You can read all of his very interesting report at my Blog at http://www.anonymousdistributor.blogspot.com/

One large outdoor power equipment manufacturer is having very good results this winter with Chinese engines designed for snow removal equipment. Other manufacturers are scouring the world looking for another dependable 2nd or 3rd source for snow engines. Don’t be surprised if you see Japanese engine brands on 2010 snowthrowers. You’ll also see Japanese branded engines on generators in mass retailers early in 2009. Of course many of these OEM Japanese engines will most likely be produced in China or in a country other than Japan. It’s a sign of the times.

Speaking of signs, did you happen to see the picture on the Internet of the outdoor sign at the Eats ‘n’ Treats restaurant? It said “Cash out your 401-K Here in Exchange for a Hot Cup of Soup – Limited Time Offer.” Does that cheer you up? It didn’t do anything for me either.

Did Husqvarna purchase Peerless from Tecumseh Power? The street says it already happened. It would make a lot of sense.

In a recent newsletter, Harvey MacKay tells of a family dog that had cancer and had to be euthanized. The father and mother thought their 6 year old son could learn something from the experience. As the dog slowly drifted away, the little boy seemed to accept the dog's transition without any difficulty or confusion.

The family sat together for a while after the dog's death, wondering aloud about the sad fact that animal lives are shorter than human lives. The young son already had it figured out, and announced, "I know why."

His explanation was stunning in its depth and simplicity.

He said: "People are born so that they can learn how to live a good life—like loving everybody all the time and being nice, right? Well, dogs already know how to do that, so they don't have to stay as long."

We can learn a lot from dogs. Live simply. Love generously. Care deeply. Speak kindly. We give dogs time we can spare, space we can spare and love we can spare. And in return, dogs give us their all. It's the best deal anyone has ever made.