No. 4 April 2010

As I write this column on Friday, March 19, the sun is out and the temperature is expected to reach 70 degrees.  The beautiful weather is forecast to continue right through this early spring weekend.  The nice weather really makes it hard to stay focused on work.  I keep looking out the window wishing I was outside.  Anybody in a business related to the outdoor power equipment industry knows the feeling you get when the weather begins turning away from winter and closer to spring.  It makes your pulse race a little quicker!  It makes you smile!  You know “our time” is coming.  Spring has just about “sprung!”

Dealers and service centers have already purchased more parts and accessories for the 2010 spring season than they did last year by this time.  Most appear to have had a successful 2009, even as consumers continued not to have much to feel good about.  Our good year in 2009 reflected the generally good year our dealers and service centers had.  And we’re optimistic about 2010.  I hope you are too!

Speaking of “hope,” in Greek mythology there is a story about Pandora, who opened her fabled box and let out all evils except for hope.  The Greeks considered hope to be an evil like any other.  But soon humanity discovered that without hope to offset their troubles, the world was filled with despair. So Pandora let out hope as well. In the myth, hope was more potent than any of the other major evils.

In modern times, we consider hope to be anything but evil. It's what gets many of us through our worst days.  Lingering unemployment, foreclosure, dwindling retirement funds, businesses folding — any of these could make a person lose hope.

Fortunately, Pandora recognized the relevance of hope — an element that is critical to our very existence. In the current business climate, hope is what keeps us from throwing in the towel. I'm a realist, but I'm also an optimist. And while hope and optimism are not exactly the same, they are intrinsically linked.

I recently read that:  “All of life’s problems can be solved with two things—duct tape and WD40. If it doesn’t move and it should, you need WD40.  If it moves and it shouldn’t, you need duct tape.”  Give it try some time when nothing else seems to work.

The Outdoor Power Equipment and Engine Service Association (OPEESA) recently held their annual members meeting out in “toasty” Arizona on February 28 to March 3.  I suspect a lot of your suppliers -  whether OEM’s or distributors - attended the meeting.

Todd Teske, the CEO of Briggs & Stratton talked about the state of the OPE industry.” The returning and very popular economist Brian Beaulieu provided solid information about the current economy and what’s coming next.  Steve McClatchy discussed the “Business of You” and how to gain balance between your business and personal lives.  Industry speakers like Todd Teske and business and economic speakers like Brian Beaulieu made the meeting very worthwhile and fulfilling to attend..

I know when we get our dealers and service centers together for various types of meetings, they discover that they get their best ideas and take-aways from other attendees. Likewise, when we attend an association meeting like OPEESA’s, we take away just as many ideas and learnings from other attendees as we do from the speakers.  So the next time you don’t “feel like” attending a meeting, remember there is always a lot of value in being with and learning from people who face the same opportunities and problems you do.

You don’t need a dictionary to understand a title Robert Schuller’s inspirational book, Tough Times Never Last, But Tough People Do.

Caterina Fake is the co-founder of the photo-sharing Web site Flickr.  And she hates meetings.  When she use to have to hold a meeting, this is how she structured it:  “There would be an agenda distributed before the meeting.  Everybody would stand.  At the beginning of the meeting, everybody would drink 16 ounces of water.  We would discuss everything on the agenda, make all the decisions that needed to be made, and the meeting would be over when the first person had to go to the bathroom.”   Following her meeting rules, I believe we would have a lot of short meetings in my company or we would hold them in a bathroom!

No. 3 March 2010

The Outdoor Power Equipment Institure (OPEI) says the industry produced 779,640 snow throwers in 2009.  Don’t you wish you had a few left on your floor to sell today?  On the other hand, I heard that older units are being repaired “like never before.”  The entire OPE industry is wearing one large smile.

Harvey MacKay says that sometimes when a problem is presented, “the best thing you can do is ask each person on your team to suggest the worst possible idea to address the problem.”  He believes that these “bad ideas enable employees to see problems in a different way and can often spur very good solutions.”  I’m very tempted to try this unusual method and see what results we get.

Normally at this time of year we’d be seeing some early flowers popping up.  If the snow would ever go away, maybe we’d be seeing some right now!  Just keep repeating “Spring is just around the corner.”

Forty seven percent of Baby Boomers report maintaining a profile on a social web site in 2009, which was up 15 percent from 2008.  From 2007 to 2008, there was only a 1-percent increase in Baby Boomers maintaining a social Website profile.  Of that 47 percent of Baby Boomers maintaining a social web site in 2009, 73 percent maintain a Facebook profile, while 13 percent have taken a liking to Twitter.  What was surprising was that only 13 percent of Boomers identified themselves as active LinkedIn users.  Given their place in the professional world, one would think that Baby Boomers would have beenmore active on this professional site.

I will admit that I do maintain personal and business Facebook page and a LinkedIn page.  Facebook can be overwhelming if you let it, so don’t let it.  While some users end-up wasting their time and mine, it is a good way to find out what friends you do not see on a regular basis are doing with their lives.  Give it a try, even if just out of curiosity. 

I do recommend LinkedIn as an excellent business resource for any business person.  Go to the site and search on someone you know and admire in our industry.  You’ll be surprised at what you find and can learn on this Web Site.

Marshall Goldsmith, the author of “The Best Coaching Advice You Will Ever Get,” has a friend who had the opportunity to talk with old people who were facing death and ask them what advice they would have had for themselves in their earlier life.  Their answers were filled with wisdom. 

“One recurring theme was to take the time to reflect on life and find happiness and meaning now.  A frequent comment from old people runs along the lines of: ‘I got so wrapped up in looking at what I didn’t have that I missed what I did have.  I had almost everything.  I wish I had taken more time to appreciate it.’”

“A second theme from old folks was friends and family.  You may work for a wonderful company and believe that your contribution is very important.  But when you are 95 and you look around your death bed, very few of your fellow employees will be waving goodbye!  Your friends and family will probably be the only people who care.”

“A third recurring theme was to follow your dreams.  Older people who tried to achieve their dreams were happier with their lives.  None of us will ever achieve all of our dreams.  If we do, we will just make up new ones!  If we go for it, we can at least say at the end, ‘I tried!’ instead of ‘Why didn’t I at least try?’”

No. 2 February 2010

Key West, Florida, the southernmost point in the continental United States, hit a 131-year low of 47 degrees on Thursday January 7, 2010.  Many Americans would give almost anything to be able to make that statement about the area they live in, including me.

It has been a frigid winter over most of the country; much colder than most recent winters in recent memory.  Heavy snow in the mid-west and northeast and lots of rain in the southeast (and lately a lot of snow) bodes well for substantial ground moisture to start the spring selling season.  You and I know weather impacts our business as much if not more than the state of the economy.  In 2007 it did not matter how strong or weak the economy was, nobody in the southeastern United States was mowing and lawn mowers were not being bought or repaired.

Evangelist Robert H. Schuller describes four kinds of people in the world today: the cop-outs, the hold-outs, the drop-outs, and the all-outs.

First are the cop-outs. They set no goals and make no decisions.

Second are the hold-outs. They have a beautiful dream, but they're afraid to respond to its challenge because they aren't sure they can make it.

Third are the drop-outs. They start to make their dream come true. They know their role. They set their goals, but when the going gets tough, they quit.

Finally, there are the all-outs. They are the people who know their role. They want and need and are going to be stars — star students, star parents, star waitresses. They want to shine out as an inspiration to others. They set their goals. The all-outs never quit. They're committed.

I hope you see yourself as an all-out.  That means you have goals in your life that you are committed to making.

Certified Parts Corporation purchased assets of Hoffco/Comet in December 2009 and hopes to maintain and continue to supply a complete line of replacement parts and ultimately finished products including clutches and torque converters.  Then Ariens Company announced in January 2010 that it had purchased intellectual assets of the Kee Mower brand of products which were most recently manufactured by Hoffco Power Equipment.  It’s good to see that from the “ashes” of Hoffco/Comet, a company whose people we will dearly miss, arises business opportunities other companies have seen and are willing to nurture and grow.

My favorite Blogger and columnist Harvey Mackay once listed 11 things we can learn from dogs.  (1) When loved ones come home, always run to greet them.  (2) Never pass up the opportunity to go for a joyride.  (3) Take naps.  (4) Run, romp, and play daily.  (5) Let people touch you.  (6) Avoid biting when a simple growl will do.  (7) When you're happy, dance around and wag your entire body.  (8) Delight in the simple joy of a long walk.  (9) Be loyal.  (10) If what you want lies buried, dig until you find it.  (11) When someone is having a bad day, be silent, sit close by, and nuzzle them gently.  Now that’s wonderful advice.

Getting people to believe in their capabilities and their own intrinsic value is among managers’ most important jobs.  We can blame ourselves because we aren’t generous with our praise when a job is done well.  There’s not feedback.  We all know good feedback should be immediate and often.  Positive feedback is given in public and negative feedback is given in private.  The rules aren’t difficult.  But feedback other than an annual or bi-annual review time is scarce and often forgotten or overlooked.  Want to bring a smile to a key employee?  Thank that person often for a job well done.

No. 1 January 2010

Think 2009 was a bad year for outdoor power equipment sales?  A powersports business magazine recently shared some of their industry’s sales declines in 2009.  It’s not a pretty picture. 

Honda sales for motorcycles, ATV’s and PWC fell nearly 54% for its fiscal second quarter from the previous year.  Suzuki North American powersports unit sales declined 40% in its most recent fiscal quarter.  Arctic Cat sales fell 19%.  Kawasaki North American sales fell 40% for its division that includes powersports.  Yamaha’s North American motorcycle unit sales declined 31% for the first nine months of 2009 and its division that includes ATV’s and UTV’s declined 65% for the same period. 

Servicing older equipment has to be just as important to powersports dealers as it is to OPE dealers.  It’s nice to have service to fall back on during tough economic times when unit sales tank.

Not only is Husqvarna leaving Augusta, GA for Charlotte, but Husqvarna’s former owner Electrolux is also moving their corporate headquarters to Charlotte from Augusta, eventually employing 700 people.  Electrolux will leave their customer service in Augusta for the time being unlike Husqvarna which is moving everything out of Augusta to Charlotte.

Husqvarna announced Jan. 7 that it will receive up to $2.5 million from the state of North Carolina if it can double its current Charlotte workforce of 160 in its consolidation move from Augusta and retain those jobs for nine years.  Coincidentally, on December 24, Husqvarna announced plans to invest more than $2.5 million in a new parts distribution center in Lexington, S.C., which will replace its parts distribution center currently located in its assembly plant in Orangeburg, S.C.

Richard C. Notebaert, former CEO of Ameritech and Qwest International, illustrated how lack of innovation (which I call “thinking outside the box”) has been an issue for thousands of years:

"In a museum at Princeton University, there is a toy from a pre-Columbian civilization. It's a pull-toy complete with wheels.

Now the question is, if the craftsmen of the day were able to conceive of and construct wheels for an amusement—a toy—why didn't they take that technology a step further and design carts and wagons? Why didn't they develop tools that would ease their burdens?  

Believe it or not, many scholars conclude they just never thought of it."

I read recently that stress is created when you are trying to control something that you can't control.  In our business we suggest not worrying about those things you cannot control.  Focus on what you can control.  Improve it.  Make it better.  You’ll feel better and reduce the unnecessary stress in your life.

Certified Parts Corporation (CPC), the Janesville, Wis.-based company that purchased TecumsehPower on Feb. 9, 2009, acquired certain assets of Hoffco/Comet in an auction Dec. 17, according to Outdoor Power Equipment magazine.  CPC purchased Hoffco/Comet’s intellectual property, dies, fixtures and tooling, as well as its entire existing parts inventory.  CPC’s intention is to maintain a complet line of replacement parts and manufacture finished product in the near future.

There is some comfort in knowing CPC will be the company trying to maintain a supply of Comet and Hoffco parts for the marketplace.  But I feel some sadness seeing another once strong and proud OPE company become missing-in-action.  I have good memories of Hoffco/Comet and the Hoff brothers.  The foundations of this industry were strong because of people like them and the company they ran.  The company was a reflection of their innovativeness, their focus on quality before “quality” became a buzz word, their integrity, and a love for life and success in their personal and business lives.  Gone but let’s hope not forgotten.

Tecumseh Products 2006 - 2009 Historical Events Timeline

I’ve had quite a few readers ask about Tecumseh Products, so I thought I’d include a Tecumseh Products management event time line I found that covers the years of 2006 to 2009.  Hopefully it will provide you additional information in a meaningful format.

Recent Tecumseh Products History

2006
— Nov. 20: Todd Herrick announces he will step down as the Tecumseh Products Co.’s CEO after 20 years at the head of the company his grandfather, Ray Herrick, founded. A $100 million credit agreement calls for Herrick to remain as the company’s board chairman after a successor is hired.

2007
— Jan. 19: The products’ board removes Herrick as CEO, replacing him with Jim Bonsall on an interim basis. Bonsall, a managing partner in a corporate-turnaround firm, had been running the company’s small-engine division during restructuring. Kent Herrick is fired from his management position with the company.

— Feb. 28: The company’s board removes Todd Herrick as chairman, replacing him with director David Risley, a former executive at La-Z-Boy in Monroe.

--  April 2: Todd Herrick and Tecumseh Products settle lawsuits over the management of the company resulting in Todd Herrick’s resignation as chairman on April 9. He remains as a non-voting board member as chairman emeritus. Kent Herrick is appointed to the board.

— Aug. 13: Ed Buker becomes CEO and president of the Products. He had been president and CEO of Citation Corp. in Alabama, a maker of cast and machined metal parts. He had previous held management positions in the automotive industry. A condition of his hiring is that he will eventually succeed Risley as chairman.

— Nov. 2: The company announces it will end production activities at its Tecumseh plant by the end of April 2008.

2008
— March 10: The Herrick Foundation recommends putting the company up for sale and says it plans to sell its share of the company’s stock.

— March 12: The company announces it will move its headquarters from Tecumseh to Pittsfield Township outside Ann Arbor.

— June: The company and the Herrick Foundation trade barbs in court over control of the company. The company had instituted a bylaw requiring 75 percent of voting stock to call a special meeting. The old threshold had been 50 percent. The foundation and Herrick family at the time owned more than 40 percent of the company’s voting stock.

— July 18: The company and Herrick Foundation reach an agreement to call a special shareholder meeting to consider removing directors Risley and Peter Banks.

— Dec. 19: Lenawee County Circuit Judge Timothy P. Pickard orders a halt to a planned stock split that would have diluted the Herrick family’s and foundation’s voting power. The company has two types of stock: non-voting Class A and voting Class B. The company claimed the proposed stock split was a move to recapitalize the company.

2009
— February: The company becomes part of an international investigation into alleged price-fixing in the compressor business. The Products, Whirlpool and other companies were cooperating in the investigation, though Tecumseh Products claimed Kent Herrick was not cooperating. The company also announces a new recapitalization plan that would replace the two classes of stock with a single share and compensate Class B shareholders with 1.1 shares of the new stock for every one share of the old stock.

— Aug. 14: Shareholders elect the Herrick Founda­tion’s slate of four candidates to the company’s board and reject the recapitalization plan. Two of management’s candidates who were elected immediately resign.

— Oct. 7: The board fires Buker as CEO and president and he resigns from the board. Kent Herrick is named chairman. James Wainwright, the company’s vice president of global operations, will serve as acting president until the board finds a new president and CEO.

No. 12 December 2009

I just heard from a friend at the North American Equipment Dealers Association (NAEDA). Our discussion centered about the large number of dealers going out of business this year. He stated what we all know is true about OPE dealers living on thin margins and the struggle to keep inventory on hand, pay wages, cover overhead etc. He recently read that the powersports industry estimates dealer closings could reach 1000 by the end of the year. I told him our company’s business analyst informed me today that our company had about 365 of our dealer customers go out of business through December 1 of this year. That’s over one a day. He and I worry that this industry will lose valuable employees plus quite a few dealers, and they will be very difficult to replace.

One day in ancient Greece, an acquaintance met the great philosopher Socrates and said, "Socrates, do you know what I just heard about your friend?"

"Hold on a minute," Socrates replied. "Before telling me anything, I'd like you to pass a little test. It's called the Triple Filter Test."

"Triple Filter Test?” asked the man.

"That's right," Socrates continued. "Before you talk to me about my friend, it might be a good idea to take a moment and filter what you're going to say. The first filter is Truth. Have you made absolutely sure that what you are about to tell me is true?"

"No," the man said, "actually I just heard about it and..."

"All right," said Socrates. "So you don't really know if it's true or not. Now let's try the second filter, the filter of Goodness. Is what you are about to tell me about my friend something good?"

"No, on the contrary..."

"So," Socrates continued, "you want to tell me something bad about him, but you're not certain it's true. You may still pass the test though, because there's one filter left: the filter of Usefulness. Is what you want to tell me about my friend going to be useful to me?"

"No, not really."

"Well," concluded Socrates, "if what you want to tell me is neither true nor good nor even useful, why tell it to me at all?"

Advice columnist Dear Abby had a wonderful saying about gossip which still rings true, "It is almost impossible to throw dirt on someone without getting a little on yourself."

I want to share with you a Christmas story I particularly like called “The Gold Wrapping Paper.”

“Once upon a time, a man punished his five-year-old daughter for using up the family’s only roll of expensive gold wrapping paper before Christmas.

Money was tight, so he became even more upset when on Christmas Eve, he saw that the child had used the expensive gold paper to decorate a large shoebox she had put under the Christmas tree.

Nevertheless, the next morning the little girl, filled with excitement, brought the gift box to her father and said, "This is for you, Daddy!"

As he opened the box, the father was embarrassed by his earlier overreaction, now regretting how he had punished her.

But when he opened the shoebox, he found it was empty and again his anger flared. "Don't you know, young lady,” he said harshly, “when you give someone a present there's supposed to be something inside the package!"

The little girl looked up at him with sad tears rolling from her eyes and whispered: "Daddy, it's not empty. I blew kisses into it until it was all full."

The father was crushed. He fell on his knees and put his arms around his precious little girl. He begged her to forgive him for his unnecessary anger.

An accident took the life of the child only a short time later. It is told that the father kept this little gold box by his bed for all the years of his life. Whenever he was discouraged or faced difficult problems, he would open the box, take out an imaginary kiss, and remember the love of this beautiful child who had put it there.

In a very real sense, each of us as human beings have been given an invisible golden box filled with unconditional love and kisses from our children, family, friends and God.

There is no more precious possession anyone could hold.”

Have a wonderful Holiday season with your family and friends.

No. 11 November 2009

A shareholder vote held recently by Tecumseh Products resulted in the Herrick family regaining control of the company they once owned and ran.

As you may recall, I called this saga a “soap opera” in my November 2008 OPE “Anonymous Distributor” column that detailed all the posturing and lawsuits. Remember that Kent Herrick, a former executive and his father Todd Herrick, former CEO, president and chairman, were ousted from the company in 2007. At that time some shareholders blamed the Herrick’s and their management team for allowing the Tecumseh engine division to become a non-factor in the air-cooled engine manufacturing business and losing major placement with lawn mower manufacturers and retailers like Sears.

As we all know, new management was put in place in 2007 and the engine division was later sold to Platinum Equity, LLC. But the Herrick family continued to be major shareholders in Tecumseh Products through their Herrick Foundation which owned more than 40 percent of the company’s voting stock in 2008.

As a result of the annual meeting in August, 2009, the shareholders voted to elect the Herrick slate of board candidates and voted down a recapitalization proposal that would have reduced the Herrick Foundation’s voting power. Kent Herrick was elected chairman of the board of directors.

Remembering a proud Tecumseh Engine Division once so strong, I can’t help but wonder why the shareholders want the fox’s guarding the chicken house again?

Here are some thoughts about the health care bills that may be imposed on all of us soon. Why should you and I care? Because we’re going to be paying for it for a very long time.

Here’s what John Feehy, president of the Feehy Group, an advocacy firm located in Washington, DC, had to say about the health care bill: “I believe that the health care bill is overly complex and not well-understood by most Americans. And it frontloads the pain and backloads the gain.

“To help pay for the benefits and to fit into the budget parameters as laid out by the president, most of the bills start increasing taxes and cutting Medicare benefits almost immediately, while the health insurance programs don’t really get up to speed for another four years or so.”

“The Democrat’s health care bill is also a direct money transfer from those middle class Americans who have health insurance to those who don’t. But polls show that most Americans not only have insurance, they are satisfied with it and fear that the Democratic plans could make it either more expensive or less effective.”

Feehy goes on to say that “making Americans pay more for their insurance (through higher premiums or taxes) or giving them fewer benefits (such as cutting the Medicare Advantage program), will cause a firestorm with middle class voters.”

Agree or disagree, you owe it to yourself to become more informed on this topic and its potential impact on your wallet and you and your family’s healthcare.

Harvey MacKay tells a wonderful story about applying a personal touch to make your sales efforts more effective. During World War II, the U.S. government began offering soldiers a life insurance policy with a $10,000 benefit if they were killed in combat.

In one unit, a young lieutenant delivered a polished presentation on the details of the plan. No one signed up. Then an older sergeant quietly asked the lieutenant if he could talk to the troops.

"Men," he said, "if you get this life insurance and you get killed, the government is going to send your family $10,000. If you don't get this insurance and you get killed, the government isn't going to send your family anything. So who do you think they're going to send up to the front lines—the ones who'll cost $10,000 when they're killed, or the ones who won't cost anything?"

All the soldiers immediately signed up.

That’s a great example of the power of applying a personal touch to your sales effort!

No. 10 October 2009

Trying times is no time to quit trying!

The weather at night has finally turned cool. It is really feeling like fall. Thank goodness we’re still receiving timely rain south of the Mason-Dixon Line, unlike our friends in other parts of the country. Service and repair business in the South, while not booming, remains steady.

Many of our customers have enjoyed excellent repair, parts and accessories sales in 2009. So have we. But it is interesting to see some service centers suffering even in an excellent service year. I wonder why? I have my opinions, but what I really get upset about is when we can tell that our customers are suffering, and they don’t ask anyone for advice and support. Who should they be talking to? The first person they should turn to in difficult times should be a trusted business friend like their accountant, attorney or banker. Next they should be talking to their suppliers. And when they do talk to their suppliers, they should have a plan in hand that they intend to follow - a plan that shows they’ve been thinking about solutions and a successful future.

I have to admit when I read the announcement that the Outdoor Power Equipment Institute (OPEI) was teaming up with Weekly Reader, lots of silly thoughts ran through my mind. For example, I know that we’ll soon see equipment owner’s manuals so entertaining and easy to read that they will be hard to get away from our children. “Gee, Dad, thanks for letting me read our lawnmower owner’s manual. It was great!” No more jokes about owner’s manuals only being read when something doesn’t work. We’ll be ordering owner’s manuals from Amazon and taking them to the beach to read during our vacations! Okay, that last one is a little far-fetched!

What’s the real reason OPEI is teaming up with Weekly Reader? They want to teach kids about the value of yards and green space, so they developed a new dog character called “Turf Mutt, the Yard Dog, a once homeless canine turned caped crusader who is ‘Out to save the Planet – One Yard at a Time.’” They also developed a classroom board game that teaches students about photosynthesis in everyday terms. And I know lots of other good ideas will follow. It’s never too early to teach our children about the value of green space and green lawns. What a great partnership!

Husqvarna recently appointed Michael Jones as new President to head up one of their five business units: Sales and Service in North and Latin America, beginning October 1, 2009. Jones comes to Husqvarna from GE, where he was General Manager, Cooking Products in the Appliances division. (No, you can’t ask him “what’s cooking at Husqvarna.”)The other four operating business units are Supply Chain, Products & Marketing, Sales and Service in Europe and Asia/Pacific, and Construction Products.

As Husqvarna shuts down it consumer product headquarters and offices in Augusta, Georgia and consolidates them into its Charlotte, NC, offices and distribution center, look for lots of other personnel changes to occur, including some names and people that you’ll recognize.

Harvey Mackay recently talked about how many businesses retreat to their comfort zones when challenged. But he goes on to mention that a comfort zone is a very dangerous place to be.

Mackay said, “In the bullfighting arena, expert matadors have long gained an edge by pinpointing a bull's comfort zone. Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina has studied this phenomenon. "In bullfighting there is a term called querencia. The querencia is the spot in the ring to which the bull returns," she explains. "Each bull has a different querencia, but as the bullfight continues, and the animal becomes more threatened, it returns more and more often to his spot. As he returns to his querencia, he becomes more predictable."

What are the consequences of predictability? "In the end," Fiorina says, "the matador is able to kill the bull because instead of trying something new, the bull returns to what is familiar. His comfort zone."

"Bad habits," a pundit once noted, "are like a comfortable bed, easy to get into, but hard to get out of." Sticking with what's comfortable might be one of the deadliest habits of all.

No. 9 September 2009

Economist Jeff Thredgold recently shared a few upbeat thoughts about the economy. Consumer confidence regarding near-term and long-term expectations rose sharply in August 2009 to its highest level since December 2007. That’s good news, according to Thredgold, because “consumer spending still represents two-thirds of all US economic activity.”

The other upbeat information concerned home prices. After three solid years of decline, estimated home prices rose 2.9 percent during the second quarter when compared to the first quarter. “The combination of sharp home price declines and historically low mortgage interest rates, when compared to average family incomes, now suggest the highest level of housing affordability in a generation,” Thredgold said.

The bad news, according to Thredgold, is the latest estimate of budget deficits during the next decade. “We can live with budget deficits averaging $150-$300 billion annually…as bad as that is…we have done it for years,” he said. “In my view, we cannot live with deficits averaging $1 trillion EACH year.” I EMPHATICALLY agree with that last statement.

You can visit Thredgold’s Web site at www.thredgold.com and sign up for his free e-mail newsletter called the Tea Leaf. Thredgold puts important economic information in easy-to-understand terms, and makes it relevant and enjoyable to read.

I’m sure that most of you have heard the following quote from the late Dave Thomas, who founded the Wendy’s restaurant chain: “It seems the harder I work, the luckier I get.”

Yet we all know plenty of folks who have worked their heads and hearts off, but for some strange reason just aren’t successful in what they accomplish.

What is the correlation between luck and success? Did Thomas have it right?

John MacKay had the following to say about making his own luck and being successful in business: “I prefer to do everything in my power to make my own ‘luck’ — long hours, clear goals, calculated risks, good hires, expert advice, and a reasonable amount of fear have guided me.” What are you doing to make your “own luck?”

Recently, my company was about to implement a change in a standard business process. Thinking about the implementation of the change, brought to mind a business rule that I learned from my father. Once you see the name, you won’t require further explanation, because you will already be quite familiar with it and understand its implications. It is called the “Law of Unintended Consequences.”

Making a change, any change, has consequences. Your goal should be to be prepared for the consequences you know about and anticipate, and be prepared for the unintended consequences that will most certainly arise. It requires thoughtful focus on the implications of the change, maximizing the results you want, and minimizing the results you don’t want.

Anticipating unintended consequences will change the way people see you. You’ll be surprised at how much more effective you will become as people come to trust and believe in your judgment.

Here’s a good story about a little boy who understood the consequences of his actions.

A young boy enters a barbershop and the barber whispers to his customer, “This is the dumbest kid in the world. Watch this.”

The barber calls the boy over, puts a dollar bill in one hand and two quarters in the other and asks, “Which do you want son?” The boy takes the quarters and leaves the dollar.

“What did I tell you?” said the barber. “That kid never learns!”

When the customer leaves, he sees the same boy coming out of the ice cream store and says, “Hey, son. Why did you take the quarters instead of the dollar bill?”

The boy licked his cone and replied, “Because the day I take the dollar, the game’s over!”

Now that’s a smart kid!